SUI struggles to reclaim $3, is more downside ahead?

The native token of the layer-1 blockchain Sui has traded sideways over the past few weeks, raising questions about whether it will rebound or extend its losses into July.

Trading around $2.71 at press time, SUI (SUI)has struggled to regain bullish momentum since slumping from its highs earlier this year. Despite recording a modest 1.4% uptick in the past 24 hours, SUI remains under pressure, dropping 15.5% over the past 30 days, approximately 22.9% from this month’s peak of $3.50, and 48.1% below its all-time high of $5.20.

SUI’s decline appears to be driven by a mix of technical and supply-side factors. The token has been in a downtrend for most of the month, falling below its 50-day moving average and forming a descending channel.

The weakness also comes amid a broader cooldown in the crypto market, as several major assets attempt to stabilize following the recent Iran-Israel geopolitical tensions that triggered a sharp sell-off.

Adding to the pressure is Sui Foundation’s latest token unlock, which saw 44 million SUI tokens, worth about $120 million, enter circulation on July 1. The unlock is part of a long-term schedule that adds over 55 million tokens each month through 2030, creating a recurring supply overhang.

SUI’s circulating supply now stands at 3.45 billion, about 34.5% of the 10 billion total supply, with more than 5.2 billion tokens still locked.

Adding to the bearish tone is a decline in open interest in SUI futures, suggesting declining trader conviction. Currently, Open Interest sits at around $1.18 billion, down from a May peak above $2 billion. This fading activity in derivatives trading points to fading confidence among market participants.

For now, downside risk remains, and traders are now watching $2.30 as key support. A decisive move below this level could further deepen losses unless sentiment across the broader crypto market shifts.